A day at the track on Saturday at Flemington that the Wizard was very close to nailing but not quite a red letter day for our followers. Dispatch, Galileo Gold and Imoto all ran well but no cigar while my second selections Stralia and Dayita were successful in their respective races. Shanghai Warrior and Baron Douro were given very good wraps in race 5 and ran 1st and 3rd respectively. My two selections at double figure odds had mixed fortunes, with Cold Steel Rein breaking down and not completing the course, and Freereturn running an excellent second to the very promising Golden Archer.
Wizard has identified the following horses to follow in the near future if they are placed appropriately: Star Lani, Shanghai Warrior, Golden Archer and He’s A Steal.
Feel free to check any prior edition of Wizard’s Early Mail by clicking on Wizard’s Early Mail from the menu. From these articles you can determine their accuracy and validity by checking the results and performances of the horses mentioned.
My comments in the Early Mail will often quote a horse’s chances in relation to its fixed odds which are available at that time with TAB Sportsbet or other fixed odds operators. Therefore, it is more than just a matter of identifying the key chances in a race, but also identifying those horses which are not to be backed at their current prices.
Specifically, comments from the latest edition of Wizard’s Early Mail included:
Instalment, race 4: “However the $3.10 now available represents poor value.”
Rollerball, race 8: “Any well backed runner from this stable has to be respected, but on its exposed form Rollerball is not value at this price.”
Both of these horses were heavily “spruiked” in media circles as well as heavily backed in early betting but failed to deliver. Horses who are very heavily backed in this early betting should very rarely, if ever, be backed at rock-bottom prices, as their winning strike-rate is far less than their prices would indicate.